IPCC errs to add manmade effects to natural effects. In choosing radiative forcing to model climate, IPCC computes a manmade climate change, implicitly adding manmade effects to the natural background. Because IPCC models are admittedly nonlinear (Third Assessment Report, ¶1.3.2), the response of the models to the sum of manmade and background forces is not equal to the sum of the background response and the response to manmade forces.
A computer run, for example, that assumes the natural forces are in equilibrium, and then calculates the effects of a slug of manmade CO2 that dissolves over the years is not valid. The run needs to be made with the natural outgassing process and anthropogenic emissions entering the atmosphere simultaneously to be circulated and absorbed through the process of the solubility of CO2 in water.
Intressant artikel om IPCC och klimatmodeller på Rocketsciencejournal.
1 kommentar:
Kanske kunde vara av intresse att ta upp denna insändare ur senaste lokaltidningen Mitt i.
http://i41.tinypic.com/5u3cz5.jpg
Om man nu ska använda IPCC:s riktvärden varför går man då efter extrempunkterna?
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